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Pakistan Iran Joint Presser |
Geopolitical Tremors: Pakistan's Iran Stance & The Dawn of a New World Order
In an era of shifting global sands, Pakistan's recent endorsement of
Iran's peaceful nuclear program is more than a diplomatic nicety; it's a
seismic signal of an evolving world order. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif's bold
declaration reverberates through the corridors of power, from Tel Aviv to
Washington, and spotlights Islamabad's increasingly assertive foreign policy in
a multipolar arena.
Published May 27, 2025
Prime
Minister Shahbaz Sharif, glaring into the geopolitical implications, jointly
held a press conference on May 26, 2025, in Tehran, with Iranian
President Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, and publicly avowed Pakistan to support Iran's
peaceful nuclear ambitions: "We stand with our Iranian brothers and
reaffirm our support for Iran's peaceful nuclear programme." Sharif
announced it during the time when tensions are high on the Iran-Israel front
and along with a larger diplomatic tour of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan,
demonstrating Pakistan's spirit of realignment along the lines.
It examines the various folds of decisions made by Pakistan and their
historical foundation in long-standing policies concerning foreign relations as
they reflect immediate regional tremors, a complicated reaction from the United
States, the compelling narrative of an emerging Eastern bloc, and the
undeniable trend that moves increasingly toward a multipolar global landscape
where US hegemony is increasingly contested.
Pakistan's Strategic Pivot: Supporting Iran's Nuclear Program
Prime Minister Sharif's pronouncement wasn't made in a vacuum. His visit
to Iran aimed to bolster regional partnerships, particularly following recent
tensions with India, and set an ambitious target to elevate bilateral trade
with Iran to $10 billion. But it's the nuclear endorsement that has
captured global attention.
Foundational Foreign Policy Pillars
Pakistan's stance is deeply anchored in its core foreign policy principles:
- Commitment to Peaceful Nuclear Energy: Pakistan has consistently supported Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology and has called for the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with salience, aka JCPOA. Islamabad's conclusion is, "negotiation, diplomacy, and engagement are the best solutions." For it is such an argument that corresponds to how Pakistan itself gained nuclear status in 1998, primarily as a form of deterrence after India's 1974 test.
- Firm Support for Palestine: For Pakistani sovereignty, an irreplaceable and ahistorical foundational principle from 1947 onwards, creation of Israel was anathema, with strong support for a two-state solution drawn from pre-1967 borders and East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine. This has both pan-Islamic identity and counter to the rising footprints of India over Israel.
- Striving for Regional Stability: There would always be issues like Kashmir and the recent border disputes with India where Islamabad would emphasize dialogue as an approach to resolving disputes. Iran's offer to mediate on the issue of India-Pakistan was gratefully acknowledged in view of common interest in de-escalating issues between the two countries.
The Lingering Shadow: Historical Connections of Nuclear Testing and Proliferation Concerns
While Pakistan champions peaceful nuclear programs, the history remains complex. A nuclear cooperation agreement with Iran was reached in 1986, amidst a visit by Dr. A.Q. Khan, "father of Pakistan's atomic weapons program." Khan Alleged subsequently got embroiled in a supply network that covertly delivered nuclear technology to Iran, North Korea, and Libya.
Even if officially
denied, this legacy casts a long shadow, resulting in an international
skepticism regarding Pakistan's non-proliferation credentials. Iran, since 1970
a signatory to the NPT, has had its share of compliance problems. There are
comparisons made about Iran's uranium enrichment facilities with Pakistan's
Kahuta plant. Possibly, after perceived threats to its existence like being
called by the US "Axis of Evil", Iran strengthened its pursuit of a
nuclear option or what one could term a "latent capability."
Pakistan, however, did
not declare a "no first use" nuclear policy, while maintaining a
full-spectrum deterrent posture against India. Nevertheless, it unilaterally
maintains a moratorium on nuclear testing. The diplomatic tour by Sharif and
support for Iran show the push for strategic autonomy, which
means Pakistan plans to focus on its own interests instead of relying on a
single power. The world in which Pakistan lives is evolving; it wants to
exercise its agency in that evolution. By promoting "peaceful
purposes", Pakistan strives to balance its support for Iran with somewhat
mitigating the blame from the West.
Ripples Across the Region: Iran-Israel Tensions and the Palestinian Fire
Pakistan's endorsement, however carefully phrased, sends powerful
ripples across the volatile Middle East.
Israel's Alarm Bells and Iran's Bolstered Resolve
- Israel's
Interpretation: Tel Aviv is highly likely to view Pakistan's support as emboldening
Iran's regional posture. Viewing Iran's nuclear ambitions
as an existential threat, Israel has consistently advocated for the
"Libyan model" of total dismantling and threatened military
strikes. Support from a nuclear-armed Muslim nation like Pakistan will
undoubtedly heighten Israeli security concerns and could intensify calls
for stricter international measures against Tehran. Historically, Israel
has even contemplated action against Pakistan's own nuclear facilities.
- Iran's
Perspective: For Tehran, Pakistan's public backing is a significant psychological
and diplomatic boost. Iranian President Pezeshkian asserts Iran's "right
to a peaceful nuclear program" as "non-negotiable."
This support reinforces Iran's resolve and could strengthen its hand in
future diplomatic engagements, especially in ongoing US-Iran nuclear
talks.
The nuclear issue is inextricably linked to regional hegemony. For both
Israel and Iran, it's about survival and power projection. Pakistan's stance,
therefore, becomes a factor in the regional balance of power, potentially
increasing the risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation.
Impact on Palestinian:
Pakistan's unwavering commitment to the Palestinian
cause is a foundational element of its foreign policy. From
opposing the UN Partition Plan in 1947 to condemning recent Israeli actions in
Gaza as "genocide" and dispatching humanitarian aid, Pakistan has
been a vocal advocate.
This shared, profound stance on Palestine deepens the strategic
convergence between Islamabad and Tehran. Iran's support for Palestinian
resistance movements like Hamas and Islamic Jihad aligns with Pakistan's
perception of the Palestinian struggle as a core issue for the Muslim Ummah. For
Pakistan, backing Iran's peaceful nuclear program is also about bolstering the
collective strength of Muslim nations against perceived Western and Israeli
aggression, particularly concerning Palestinian rights.
The Palestinian cause acts as a potent ideological and political glue,
fostering a broader pan-Islamic alignment and challenging Western narratives.
This shared commitment transcends other potential differences, becoming a
strategic tool for rallying Muslim-majority nations.
Washington's Tightrope: US Reacts to an Ally's Gambit:
Contradicting American Goals
Possible American responses to Pakistan's position
- Diplomatic Pressure: There will be a great deal of robust US diplomatic efforts in defining that Pakistan is very clear on its support for Iran and is discouraging any actions that might be interpreted as being in any way relevant to contributing to the military nuclear capabilities of Iran.
- Sanctions Review: Although complete comprehensive sanctions on Pakistan might not be immediately feasible, there could be a review to consider packages of aid grants or specific targeted sanctions in case of suspicion of non-peaceful support. In the past, the US has slapped sanctions on entities connected to nuclear and missile programs in Iran.
- Strategic Reassessment: The future strategy for Washington could involve the reevaluation of its regional partnerships, potentially strengthening alliances with other actors to counter any perceived anti-Western bloc.
- Muted Public Condemnation: Public condemnation of Pakistan is however improbable. In fact, the US may restate its apprehensions concerning non-proliferation and safeguards while recognizing, perhaps, the context of the Palestine issue in which this falls.
Pakistan's Balancing Act and Shifting Dynamics:
Pakistan has historically walked a tightrope, balancing ties with the US
while deepening partnerships with China (e.g., the $62 billion
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor - CPEC) and engaging with Russia. The
Palestinian cause remains a non-negotiable friction point with US policy.
The US now faces a dilemma: alienate a strategic ally or risk
undermining its non-proliferation agenda. This highlights the complexities of
US foreign policy in a multipolar world. Furthermore, the Palestinian
issue grants Pakistan indirect leverage. By linking its Iran
stance to Palestinian solidarity, Pakistan subtly pressures the US to consider
regional sentiment and its own declining soft power in the Muslim world. The
traditional "aid-for-influence" model is also under strain as nations
like Pakistan actively diversify alliances, reducing dependency on a single
patron.
A New Constellation? The Emerging Iran-Pakistan-China-Russia-Turkey Axis
The narrative of an Iran-Pakistan-China-Afghanistan-Russia-Turkey
bloc challenging Western interests is gaining traction. While
a formal NATO-style military alliance is distant, strategic convergence is
undeniable.
The foundations of convergence are as follows:
- Shared anti-Western sentiment: A number of these nations desire a multipolar world, considering Western dominance threatening. Iranian President Pezeshkian promises to work with China and Russia to counter US-led "totalitarianism" and "unilateralism."
- Economic corridors: The BRI, which includes CPEC, promotes economic integration; thus comes the idea of the "Golden Ring Energy Corridor," which is meant to link China, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and Russia for trade in energy. Even if the gas pipeline IP has been stalled on account of US sanctions, it remains a significant potential project.
- Regional security- Afghanistan under the Taliban is a common security challenge. Russia and China wish for Central Asian stability, while Pakistan and Iran demand border security and counter-terrorism, meeting trilaterally with China.
- The role of the SCO: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) provides such a mechanism for security, economic, and political coordination involving China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. Covering large territories of Eurasia and a global population, the SCO is proposed as an alternative to US-led institutions.
Pakistan's Gains and Internal Complexities:
This alignment offers Pakistan diversified alliances, access to markets
and investment (especially from China), and a collaborative approach to
regional security threats like terrorism and Afghan instability. It also allows
for a more assertive stance on Kashmir and Palestine.
However, internal divergences persist:
- Pakistan-Iran:
Historical distrust, sectarian differences, and stalled projects like the
IP pipeline.
- China-Russia: A
"no limits" partnership with underlying economic competition and
influence struggles in Central Asia.
- Turkey's
Balancing Act: Navigating NATO membership with ties to Russia and China,
alongside historical proxy conflicts with Iran.
These complexities suggest that while convergence is happening, a truly
unified bloc faces significant hurdles.
The World Reorders: Multipolarity and the Challenge to US Hegemony:
Neutral analysts widely agree: the global order is shifting from US
unipolarity towards a multipolar system. This
is driven by China's rise, Russia's assertiveness, and the growing influence of
regional powers.
Key Trends Shaping the New Order
- Increased
Regionalization: Geopolitics are increasingly shaped by regional blocs and
partnerships, as countries seek to manage risks and secure interests
closer to home.
- Contested
US Hegemony: The US remains a formidable power, but its post-Cold War
"superpower" status is diminishing. Foreign policy failures and
internal challenges have led to questions about its influence. This
empowers nations like Pakistan to prioritize their own interests.
- Proxy
Conflicts & Asymmetric Warfare: Direct major
power confrontations are unlikely, but proxy wars (like the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict) are intensifying.
- Economic
Interdependence vs. Geopolitical Competition:
Global trade coexists uneasily with economic nationalism and trade wars,
pushing for regional integration.
Is America Losing Its Superpower Status?
The Pakistani Compass: Current Global Tactical Use
- The Western Bloc (Victorian Allies): In this sense, America, the EU, Japan, etc. frequently speak with one voice about democracy; however, regarding aiding Israel against threats, Pakistan is sorely disillusioned due to what it claims are double standards.
- Eastern/Emerging Bloc: China, which regards Pakistan as an "all-weather friend," along with Russia, Iran, the Taliban government in Afghanistan, and Turkey, seems to express compassion toward the Palestinian cause and strives for a multipolar world. This bloc is also typified by the increasing membership of BRICS, which is meant to dismantle the United States' influence.
- Non-Aligned/Balancing States: Countries like India are pursuing multi-alignment strategies and trying to take their share of the spoils from all major powers without totally aligning themselves with any."
Pakistan's Assertive Future in a Transformed World:
Pakistan's Assertive Future in a Transformed World" In an watershed moment reflecting Pakistan's deep-rooted foreign policy tenets-commitment to peaceful nuclear energy, unswerving support for Palestine, and strategic autonomy- Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif made an announcement of support for a peaceful Iranian nuclear program.
Not just a diplomatic token, it is an calculated strategic move in a world currently being profoundly transformed. Pakistan's position serves to intensify the Iran-Israel dynamic and further the emerging Eastern alignment (Pakistan-Iran-China-Afghanistan-Russia-Turkey) and throws complex challenges to US foreign policy, with traditional leverage waning.